Action 21103 – Crop Production Forecasts and Climate Change Impact (AGRI4CAST)
Crop monitoring and forecasting at EU level in support to the Common Agricultural Policy
The Action is centred on the JRC's crop yield forecasting system that aims to provide accurate and timely crop yield forecasts and crop production estimates for the EU territory and other strategic areas of the world. AGRI4CAST has been developing and operationally running a crop forecasting system since 1992 in order to provide timely crop production forecasts at European and Member State level. Crop forecasts at EU level are necessary to provide the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) decision makers with timely information for rapid decision-making on CAP instruments during the growing season. The AGRI4CAST crop monitoring activities are performed under EU law with regard to their maintenance, operation and analysis (Council Regulation (EC) No 78/2008). AGRI4CAST collaborates with the FAO on crop area statistics.
The JRC-MARS Crop Yield Forecasting System (MCYFS) is a complex, integrated analysis tool comprising remote sensing and meteorological observations, agro-meteorological and bio-physical modelling as well as statistical analysis. The latter two components receive key input from the MARS meteorological and remote sensing infrastructure. The system monitors crop vegetation growth (cereal, oil seed crops, protein crops, sugar beet, potatoes, pastures, rice), including the short-term effects of meteorological events on crop production, and provides seasonal yield forecasts on key European crops, thereby contributing to the evaluation of global production estimates (wheat, rice, etc.) in support of CAP management decisions. The results of the yield monitoring activities are synthesised as the MARS Bulletin, a report published regularly through the European growing season.
Agriculture has a dual role in terms of global change: It is an important emitter of greenhouse gases, while at the same time it is one of the main sectors to be impacted by climatic change, with local, regional and global implications for the stability and access of food supply. In view of providing support to the CAP and the Climate Change policy agenda of the EC, studies that assess the resilience of crop production systems under a number of climate change scenarios are being implemented. Both current and expected new climate conditions will be analysed, focusing on short-term and medium-term time horizons (e.g. 2020, 2050).
Specific objectives of the Action
- To provide near real-time crop growth monitoring and yield forecasting products based on the JRC-MARS Crop Yield Forecasting System
- To assess climate change impacts on agriculture through the simulation of impacts of climate change scenarios with crop models
- To further enhance the JRC-MARS Crop Yield Forecasting System by extending its simulation capacities for forecasting crop yields in the EU and key regional production areas such as Asia and Latin America towards global coverage
- To provide training in crop monitoring and modeling systems and technology transfer in support to EU-27 neighborhood countries
More information can be found on the Monitoring Agricultural Resources Unit website.
Main customers
- DG Agriculture and Rural Development
- DG EuropeAid Development and Cooperation
- DG Enlargement
- DG Eurostat
- European Food Safety Agency (EFSA)
EU Legislation and Documents supported by this Action
- EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP)
- EU Climate Change Policy
- Council Regulation (EC) No 78/2008
- Council Regulation (EC) No 543/2009
- COM(2010) 672 final: The CAP towards 2020
Further information
Contact Info:
Stefan Niemeyer - Tel.: +39-0332-785820
E-mail: stefan.niemeyer(at)jrc.ec.europa.eu
