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Quantifying GreenHouse Gas Emissions using Inverse Modelling

Atmospheric measurements combined with inverse atmospheric models can provide independent 'top-down' estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, tracing back measurements of atmospheric GHG concentrations to the origin of the emissions. This technique can be used to check consistency with emission estimates based on 'bottom-up' inventories (developed from statistical data), such as the national GHG emissions reported to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This is important in particular for the non-CO2 GHGs, such as methane (CH4) or nitrous oxide (N2O), for which considerable uncertainties exist in the 'bottom-up' inventories.

 

Mean European CH4 emissions for the period 2001-2006 derived by the JRC inverse modelling system [Bergamaschi et al., 2010]. Filled circles - stations which take continuous measurements; Open circles - stations which take weekly measurements.

 

The inverse modelling system of the IES (TM5-4DVAR)

IES scientists developed a sophisticated inverse modelling system called TM5-4DVAR, for atmospheric CH4 and N2O, based on a global 3-D atmospheric transport model. Atmospheric observations from monitoring stations are assimilated by the inverse model, which optimises the emissions applied in the model until an optimal agreement between simulated and observed concentrations is achieved.

In 2010, the model was applied to estimate the European CH4 emissions over the period 2001-2006, using atmospheric observations from European and global surface monitoring stations [Bergamaschi et al., 2010]. For global inverse modelling, also satellite data are used, such as from the SCIAMACHY (SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CartograpHY) instrument on board the European environment research satellite ENVISAT [Bergamaschi et al., 2009]. Such satellite based global CH4  inversions are now performed pre-operationally in the framework of the MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate) project.

Integrated Carbon Observations System

To further improve the top-down emission estimates, long-term high-quality atmospheric measurements are necessary. The IES is involved in an integrated European monitoring network currently prepared by the new European research infrastructure project ICOS (Integrated Carbon Observations System). Its aim is to quantify and understand the greenhouse balance of the European continent and of adjacent regions and to provide atmospheric and ecosystem data for research and political decision-making. The ICOS Research Infrastructure was selected by the European Strategy Forum for Research Infrastructures (ESFRI) roadmap in October 2006 as one of the vital new European Research Infrastructures for the next 20 years. The Carbon Portal, a common data centre, will provide free access to ICOS data services.

Publications

  • P. Bergamaschi, M. Krol, J. F. Meirink, F. Dentener, A. Segers, J. van Aardenne, S. Monni, A. T. Vermeulen, M. Schmidt, M. Ramonet, C. Yver, F. Meinhardt, E. G. Nisbet, R. E. Fisher, S. O’Doherty, and E. J. Dlugokencky (2010). Inverse modelling of European CH4 emissions 2001–2006. Journal Of Geophysical Research, VOL. 115, D22309, doi:10.1029/2010JD014180
  • P. Bergamaschi, C. Frankenberg, J.Fokke Meirink, M.KrolM, G. Villani, S.Houweling, F.Dentener, E.J. Dlugokencky, J. B. Miller, L. V. Gatti, A.Engel, and I.Levin. (2009). Inverse modelling of global and regional CH4 emissions using SCIAMACHY satellite retrievals. Journal Of Geophysical Research, VOL. 114, D22301, doi:10.1029/2009JD012287
  • Corazza, M., P. Bergamaschi, A. T. Vermeulen, T. Aalto, L. Haszpra, F. Meinhardt, S. O'Doherty, R. Thompson, J. Moncrieff, E. Popa, M. Steinbacher, A. Jordan, E. J. Dlugokencky, C. Brühl, M. Krol, and F. Dentener (2011). Inverse modelling of European N2O emissions: Assimilating observations from different networks. Atmos. Chem. Phys. , 11, doi:10.5194/acp-11-2381-2011.

Contact Info

Peter Bergamaschi – Tel: +(39) 0332 789621 E-mail: peter.bergamaschi(at)jrc.ec.europa.eu

 
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